← FTG Phantom Monarch Store Championship
Water Ravishing MillTier 1
at FTG Phantom Monarch Store Championship
decks
1
(7.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
2-2-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
58.8%
avg ELO +5.6 per match
expected value
52.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
55.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1175
· median 1175
· range 1175–1175
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1153
Q1 1178
Q3 1382
1536
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 15.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.0% | +24.0 |
| Water Fractal | 15.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 15.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.9% | -6.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.8% | -17.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.3% | +22.9 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Ravishing Mill decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
